Forward
To be presented as a poster presentation in ICMA 24.
Abstract
The interaction between discrete and continuous math gained attraction recently.
We study the winning domination vs scoring equity of Round-Robin tournaments, Under Erdős–Rényi Model, where vertices number tends to infinity. Particularly, we show players scoring tend to get closer to the mean.
We also prove on complete bipartite matches $U \times V$, No matter how small the proportion of $U$, As vertices number tends to infinity, every player in $V$ is more likely to lose from some player in $U$.
Background
A curious book illustrating beautiful intersections between discrete and continuous math is Pinsky’s Problems from the Discrete to the Continuous.
Lázló Lovász initiated the study of graph limits, especially dense graphs through symmetric measurable functions named Graphons. See Yufei Zhao’s Graph Theory and Additive Combinatorics.
Definitions
Complete Bipartite Graph. A graph $K_{U,V}$ such that its vertices can be divided into two disjoint sets $U$ and $V$, and edges $E = U \times V$ of all possible pairs.
Round-Robin Tournament. $n$ contestants play $\dbinom{n}{2}$ matches whereby each pair of contestants play against each other exactly once. A match results in a winner and loser. For a player $k$, Let $score[k]$ be the number of winnings out of the total $n-1$ matches she plays.
Erdős–Rényi Model. In $G(n, p)$ a random graph is constructed by randomly connecting each pair of nodes with probability $p$. The number of vertices $n$ is fixed.
Methods
Bernoulli Random Variable. An $X$ such that $Pr[X=1] = p$ and $Pr[X=0] = 1-p$, for some $0 \leq p \leq 1$.
$$ \begin{aligned} \text{Variance} \quad \sigma^2 &= Var[X] = np (1-p) \\ \text{Mean} \quad \mu &= Ex[X] = np \end{aligned} $$source: Ross. A First Course in Probability, section 6.1, page 142.
Chebyshev Inequality. For any $k > 0$,
$$ Pr[ |X - \mu| \geq k ] \leq \frac{\sigma^2}{k^2} $$source: Ross. A First Course in Probability, proposition 2.2, page 398.
Limit Sandwiching. If $g(x) \geq f(x) \geq h(x)$ then
$$ \lim_{x \rightarrow c} g(x) \geq \lim_{x \rightarrow c} f(x) \geq \lim_{x \rightarrow c} h(x) $$Murphy’s Law. For mutually independent events $A_1, A_2, \dots, A_n$, $T_i$ indicator random variable for $A_i$, and $T = T_1 + \dots + T_n$, It follows
$$ Pr[T=0] \leq e^{ -Ex[T] } $$source: MIT’s Math for CS, thm 19.6.4, page 815.
Remarks
Graph-based interpretation of tournament results. Outcomes of $n$ contestants can be interpreted as a direct graph, whereby for each pair of players $(a,b)$, exactly $(a,b) \in G(E)$ or $(b,a) \in G(E)$.
Results
Theorem. In a Round-Robin tournament of $n$ players, Drawing is possible for any $n \geq 3$ players.
The proof is constructive. Fix players $p1$, $p2$, and $p3$. Assign $p1$ loses from $p2$ and wins remaining $n-2$ players. Assign $p2$ loses from $p3$ and wins remaining $n-2$ players. Then $score[p1] = score[p2] = n-2$. As $p1$ and $p2$ are fully assigned, any other player wins at most $n-3$ times.
Theorem. In a Round-Robin tournament of $n$ players, and with a winning probability $p = \frac{1}{2}$ for all players, The probability of “Domination” where a player beats all others tends to zero as $n \rightarrow \infty$.
Let $E_i$ denote ith player wins all others.
$$ \begin{aligned} Pr[E_i] &= \left ( \frac{1}{2} \right )^{n-1} \\ Pr[U_i E_i] &= \sum_{i=1}^n Pr[E_i] = n \cdot \frac{1}{2^{n-1}} \quad &\text{mutually exclusive events} \\ \lim_{n \rightarrow \infty} Pr[U_i E_i] &= \lim_{n \rightarrow \infty} \frac{n}{2^{n-1}} = \lim_{n \rightarrow \infty} \frac{1}{2^{n-1} \ln 2 } = 0 \quad &\text{L'Hopital} \end{aligned} $$Theorem. In a Round-Robin tournament of $n$ players, Fix a player $k$. Let $\mu_k$ be the mean of $score[k]$, i.e its expectation. Then
$$ \lim_{r \rightarrow 0} \lim_{n \rightarrow \infty} Pr [ |score[k] - \mu_k| \geq r \cdot \mu_k ] = 0 $$Observe
$$ \begin{aligned} \text{Variance} \quad \sigma^2 &= (n-1) \left ( \frac{1}{2} \right ) \left ( 1-\frac{1}{2} \right ) = \frac{1}{4} (n-1) \\ \text{Mean} \quad \mu &= \frac{n-1}{2} \end{aligned}$$Then for any $r > 0$
$$\begin{aligned} Pr[ |score[k] - \mu| \geq r \mu ] &\leq \frac{\frac{1}{4} \cdot (n-1)}{\left (r \cdot \frac{n-1}{2} \right )^2} \\ &= \frac{1}{4} \cdot (n-1) \cdot \frac{1}{r^{2}} \cdot \frac{2}{n-1} \cdot \frac{2}{n-1} \\ &= \frac{1}{r^2(n-1)} \end{aligned} $$Since $\lim_{n \rightarrow \infty} \frac{1}{r^2(n-1)} = 0$, It follows by Limit Sandwiching
$$ \lim_{n \rightarrow \infty} Pr[ |score[k] - \mu| \geq r \mu] = 0 $$By taking $r$ to be arbitrarily small, The intended result follows.
Theorem. We are given a complete bipartite graph of matches, with total $n$ vertices, partitioned by $|U| = \lceil rn \rceil$, and $|V| = \lfloor (1-r)n \rfloor$. Also $n \geq 1$, $r > 0$, and $p > 0$. For $T$ the number of players in $V$ who won some match, We show $Ex[T/|V|] = 1$ as $n \rightarrow \infty$.
For every player $i = \lceil rn \rceil + 1, \dots, n$ of $V$, Let $T_i = 1$ iff it won some match. Then $T = \sum_{i = \lceil rn \rceil + 1}^n T_i$.
By Murphy $Pr[T_i = 1] \geq 1 - e^{ - \lceil rn \rceil \cdot p }$. It follows
$$ \begin{aligned} Ex[T] &= Ex[T] \\ &= \sum_{i=\lceil rn \rceil + 1}^n Ex[T_i = 1] \\ &= \sum_{i=\lceil rn \rceil + 1}^n Pr[T_i = 1] \quad \text{Indicator Variable} \\ &\geq \lceil n(1-r) \rceil - \sum_{i=\lceil rn \rceil + 1}^n e^{- \lceil rn \rceil p} \\ Ex[T/|V|] &= \frac{1}{|V|} Ex[T] \\ &\geq \frac{1}{|V|} \lceil n(1-r) \rceil - \frac{1}{|V|} \sum_{i=\lceil rn \rceil + 1}^n e^{- \lceil rn \rceil p} \\ &= \frac{\lceil n(1-r) \rceil}{\lceil n(1-r) \rceil} - \frac{1}{\lceil n(1-r) \rceil} \sum_{i=\lceil rn \rceil + 1}^n e^{- \lceil rn \rceil p} \\ &= 1 - \frac{1}{\lceil n(1-r) \rceil} \sum_{i=\lceil rn \rceil + 1}^n e^{- \lceil rn \rceil p} \end{aligned} $$Therefore
$$ \lim_{n \rightarrow \infty} 1 - \frac{1}{\lceil n(1-r) \rceil} \sum_{i = \lceil rn \rceil + 1}^n e^{- \lceil rn \rceil p} = 1 - 0 \cdot (0 + \dots + 0) = 1 $$Since $Pr[T_i=1] \leq 1$,
$$ Ex[T/|V|] = \frac{1}{\lceil n(1-r) \rceil} \cdot \sum_{\lceil rn \rceil + 1}^n Pr[T_i = 1] \leq \frac{1}{\lceil n(1-r) \rceil} \cdot \sum_{\lceil rn \rceil + 1}^n 1 = 1 $$By Sandwiching $\lim_{n \rightarrow \infty} Ex[T/|V|] = 1$.